Forecasters expect a very strong El Niño this winter. Here is what that could mean for Northern California, and the roofing checks you can do yourself while you wait for an inspection.
Winter prep · storm season
El NiNo 2026–27: How to get your Marin roof ready for a wet winter
In its September 2026 update, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center gave better than a 90% chance of a very strong El Niño this fall and winter. El Niño years usually bring more rain to California. Strong ones in 1982–83 and 1997–98 brought historic storms to Northern California, while 2015–16 came in below average here, so nothing is guaranteed. Forecasters expect the biggest effects between November and January.
Our phones have been busy with Marin homeowners and property managers who want their roofs checked before the rain starts. That's a smart instinct. A roof that made it through last year's dry winter may have small problems that only show up in a long, heavy storm.
what's cominG
If you're feeling nervous, you're not alone
a note about our schedule
We're booked up right now. Our crews are working through inspections, repairs and re-roofs in the order they came in, and we still want to hear from you. Call or email to get on our list, and we'll contact you as soon as we have an opening. In the meantime, the checklist below will help you find problems early.
your roof prep checklist
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Clean out leaves and needles, run a hose to make sure each downspout drains freely, and check for loose hangers or leaking seams. Water should land well away from your foundation.
Clear gutters and downspouts
step 2
Walk around the house with binoculars. Look for missing, cracked or slipped shingles and tiles, and for lifted flashing around chimneys, vents and skylights. Please don't climb onto a steep or wet roof. Leave that to a professional.
Look at your roof from the ground
step 1
If you have a flat or low-slope roof, clear drains and scuppers of debris. Watch for standing water after a rain, and for blisters or cracks in the surface.
Check flat roofs and drains
Branches that hang over or rub against the roof drop debris into gutters and can scrape shingles. Have an arborist take care of dead limbs and anything near power lines.
Trim trees near the roof
step 3
Look at ceilings and the attic for stains, damp insulation or a musty smell, especially around skylights and chimneys. Check again after the first big rain.
Check inside, too
Keep buckets and towels handy, move valuables away from the drip, and take photos of the damage for your insurance company. Then call us. Please stay off the roof during a storm.
Have a plan if a leak starts
Read your homeowner's or business policy before the storms arrive and ask your agent how it handles roof leaks and water damage. Photos of your roof's condition today can help if you ever need to file a claim.
insurance checkup
common questions
Will El Niño hit Marin this winter?
NOAA expects a very strong El Niño, and El Niño years tend to be wetter than normal in California. Every winter is different, and 2015–16 is a reminder that a strong El Niño doesn't always mean heavy rain here.
Should I replace my roof before the rain?
It depends on your roof's age and condition. Some roofs need a repair, and some need a full replacement. We'll give you honest advice with no pressure once we can come out.
How soon can you come out?
We're booked right now, but we'd like to help. Call or email us to get on our list and we'll reach out when we have an opening. In the event of an active leak during wet weather, we may be able to temporarily waterproof damage.
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